Ominous signs of a faulty vaccine distribution policy.
The rich get richer and eventually, everyone gets poorer.
Introduction
Haters gonna hate, viruses gonna mutate.
It’s just what they do.
Genome databases suggest that there are now more than a thousand known variants of the SARS CoV-2 virus. That’s right, just a couple more than the number of times you hit “Snooze” on a Monday morning.
Of course, only a few of these so far have been deemed “variants of concern” and the successful creation of multiple vaccines offer hope in the fight against this pandemic. However, a potentially decisive challenge persists.
The vaccine distribution policies that we, as a global community, adopt are absolutely crucial. Each decision could result in drastically different outcomes in our near future. You could formulate a vaccine that is 95% effective against the virus, BUT, if it isn’t paired with an effective strategy for information-sharing and distribution, the work could be rendered completely futile.
Let’s better understand why that is.
The Problem(s) at hand
According to a recent study in the medical journal ‘The Lancet’, the world’s richest countries have secured almost 70% of supplies of the five top COVID-19 vaccines despite having less than 16% of the globe’s population.
In healthcare, the idea of the rich having much better access to care isn’t new and unique, it has prevailed for years and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The moral endeavour though must always be to bridge this gap and aim for equitable distribution of medical care.
In an era-defining event such as a pandemic, taking a step forward towards the contraction of this gap is imperative. This has to start with how we handle our vaccines.
To ensure that the developing nations have the necessary access to the right vaccines is a goal that must be fulfilled, not just for their well-being, but for the well-being of the entire global fraternity.
“At this critical moment, vaccine equity is the biggest moral test before the global community” — UN Chief Antonio Guterres
Currently though, we’re struggling.
According to the WHO, only about 0.2% of the population in poorer countries have been vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, and there are already existing issues of medical resource shortages and inferior health infrastructure in most of these countries. Hence, the multiple waves of infection have had disastrous effects and the inability to obtain vaccines only exacerbates their suffering several-fold. When you think about the fact that most of these countries haven’t even been able to launch their vaccination campaign and vaccinate their front-line workers while the richer nations are prepared to vaccinate even their younger, lower-risk population, it starts looking like an incredibly bleak situation.
Keeping this in mind, the WHO had co-organized the COVAX initiative to help these developing nations procure the vaccines. The dark reality though is that from the offset, richer countries have secured millions of doses from several top vaccine manufacturers through simultaneous bilateral contracts which have essentially swept the market clean.
According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, at this rate, 84 of the world’s poorest states won’t get enough vaccines to achieve herd immunity until 2024.
Not only have these contracts hurt the market for these poorer nations, the decisions of the richer nations to not share “ Intellectual Property” with the others have been questionable as well. There is a definite vaccine supply shortage, but the problem can be alleviated if the knowledge of vaccine formulation is shared. Isn’t there a moral obligation to do so at a time like this?
Globally, there are several qualified vaccine manufacturers who do not have the information necessary to replicate the existing vaccines, and yet at this time, the richer nations have chosen to protect their large pharmaceutical companies in their pursuit of profit.
Suhaib Siddiqi, former director of chemistry at Moderna, producer of one of the first approved vaccines, said that with the blueprint and technical advice, a modern factory should be able to produce vaccines in at most three to four months.
Wouldn’t this help tremendously with the supply problem and provide more control to these poorer nations when it comes to vaccine procurement? To have the opportunity to negotiate with some of the new, smaller producers that would invariably come in?
This is exactly why more than 100 developing countries, led by South Africa and India made a case at the WTO for a waiver of Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS), which would eliminate legal barriers for a limited time so that more countries and manufacturers are able to produce the vaccines, and join the recovery.
Guess who said NO?
Those same richer nations that want complete control over the supply, and thereby, hold all the power.
Implications of the continuation of “Rich > Poor” policy
- Effects of virus mutation on vaccine efficacy
As I mentioned at the start of this post, “haters gonna hate, viruses gonna mutate”. These mutations can lead to something known as “antigenic drift”, which is when the virus mutates enough times such that the surface of the virus changes over time and “drifts” from the original structure. Now, the surface of the virus is how the antibodies created by the vaccine identify the virus and thereby, fight it. Hence, if the surface changes, the virus would be able to evade our immune responses, and render our vaccines useless.
Why is this important? Well, in the poorer nations that are not vaccinating a majority of their population, the virus is provided more opportunities and time to replicate and mutate, which may eventually lead to “antigenic drift”. Once that happens, in a globally connected world such as ours, these new, vaccine-resistant variants could easily travel to the rich, well-vaccinated countries and wreak havoc once again in a brand new cycle. Evidently, it’s in the best interests of the richer nations to ensure strong vaccination procurement programmes for the poorer nations as well.
An advantage for vaccine manufacturers though is that the SARS-CoV-2 virus seems to mutate 4 times slower than the common influenza virus, according to research. Hence, we still have time to improve our vaccine distribution strategies and save countless lives. - Effects on the global economy
A study by the International Chamber of Commerce estimates the global economy could suffer losses of $9 trillion if developing countries — which produce many of the goods we consume — are shut out from vaccine roll-outs.
Ah, shit.
Well, if the well-being of billions of lives do not bother the policymakers of these richer nations, at least the money should. Production and manufacturing is highly concentrated in these developing nations, and the catastrophic effects of a continuing pandemic will be felt across the global economy.
For instance, King Yuan Electronics is a large chip testing company in Taiwan. You wouldn’t hear about them until something bad happens to them, but they play a crucial role in the electronics industry. They are responsible for testing the chips that power your phones, your laptops and even the chips responsible for controlling the wiper in your car. So if this company becomes non-functional due to the effects of the pandemic, an entire global supply chain is affected. You could have all the parts of the car ready, but if the the wiper isn’t functioning right, you cannot sell it.
Conclusion
As we can see, our vaccine distribution policies can have far-reaching consequences. There is no doubt that creating the vaccines in record time is an unbelievable achievement, but for the achievement to have the desired effects, there has to be a better plan in place than the one we’re going through. It could very well shape the post-pandemic world (if there is a “post” that is)
